ACEGES Software: Probabilistic Forecasts of World Oil Production to 2100

I have been asked by a few people to show a graphic of World Oil Production. This is given in the figures below. I have superimposed the 'peak year' based upon the simulation (Monte Carlo simulations based upon distributional assumptions of OIL EUR, Peak Point, Oil Demand).

Although the peak year and peak production contradict much of the existing views, a full explanation of the assumptions of the ACEGES program and the data used to initialize the simulations will be provided in the ACEGES 1.0 manual - expected by the end of July. The figures are based on only 134 simulations.



The blue dots is a random sample from the simulated data and the black lines (in the figure below) are estimated centiles using the Generalized Beta type 2 distribution. All the four parameters of the distribution were modelled using cubic smoothing splines. The actual production, red line, seems to follow the 2% centile value.