Call for Contributors: Global Energy Policy and Security

Prof. Walter Leal Filho (Head of Research and Transfer Centre, Applications of Life Science Hamburg University of Applied Sciences,
Germany) and Dr. Vlasios Voudouris (Deputy Director Centre for International Business and Sustainability London Metropolitan Business School) are editing a new book with the title: "Global Energy Policy and Security." The book aims to represent a multidisciplinary perspective. Therefore, contributions from energy economics and agent-based computational economists working in the field of energy markets are particularly welcome. For example, a book chapter will be based on the Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System (ACEGES -http://www.aceges.org) project as a way of demonstrating the use of the agent-based computational economics (ACE) for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled experiments.

For details, please see http://www.haw-hamburg.de/call_for_papers_en.html

ACEGES: New article at Energy Policy

Abstract
An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.
Highlights
► Development of oil scenarios using computational experiments. ► Support of energy policy using agent-based modelling and simulation. ► Demonstration of the agent-based computational economics of the global energy system (ACEGES) policy-support tool. ► Energy policy by means of evidence-based forward-looking probabilistic forecasts.
Keywords: Oil depletion; Oil scenario generation; ACEGES

For more information, see http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867

ACEGES: New article at Energy Policy

Abstract
An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.
Highlights
► Development of oil scenarios using computational experiments. ► Support of energy policy using agent-based modelling and simulation. ► Demonstration of the agent-based computational economics of the global energy system (ACEGES) policy-support tool. ► Energy policy by means of evidence-based forward-looking probabilistic forecasts.
Keywords: Oil depletion; Oil scenario generation; ACEGES

For more information, see http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867

UK Energy Day: Video

MSc in Sustainable Business, Energy and Finance

Open publication - Free publishing - More CIBS

aceges.org

The results of the ACEGES project, including updates of the ACEGES software, will be hosted at www.aceges.org from March, 2011 onwards.

ACEGES Presentation at UCL Energy Istitute

UK Energy Day 2011

The Centre for International Business and Sustainability at LondonMet Business School is organising the UK Energy Day: Sustainably Supply. The UK Energy Day 2011 is part of an European network of events led by the Intelligent Energy Agency of the European Commis- sion. The event will promote the awareness of the significance of sustainable energy supply, particularly the need to balance home-grown energy and energy imports. During the day, talks and demonstrations will take place to increase awareness of sustain- able methods of energy production at the global, regional, local and industrial levels.

The brochure and registration form of the event is available here: http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/lmbs/research/cibs/energyday.cfm

ACEGES: Launching the ACEGES demo

We released the ACEGES demo as a Java applet. The most reliable web browser for the ACEGES demo seems to be Google Chrome (both for Mac and Windows). Please let me know if something is in need of revision or what kind of functionality you would like to see by emailing me at v.voudouris@londonmet.ac.uk

To access the ACEGES demo, select the "ACEGES Applet" tab from here: http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/lmbs/research/cibs/aceges

The ACEGES laboratory for energy policy: Exploring the production of conventional oil

I am giving a talk at the UCL Energy Institute on January 25th. In case, you are interested to attend.

Abstract:
For exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments, I propose an agent-based computational laboratory, termed the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System). In particular, I show how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. This approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of 'the invisible hand' but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. The simulated scenarios, paints of plausible futures satisfying the generative explanation, show that the peak of world oil production is likely to happen in the region of 2020 and 2040 with a global minimum of remaining reserve/production ratio between 20 and 40. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, I also observe a global minimum of market diversity in the broad vicinity of the peak year.

For details, please see http://www.eventbrite.com/event/1182949233

Conrad Wolfram: Math with Computers

This is really just want we need. Worth looking at it.



Thanks Carlo for bring this to my attention.