ACEGES: New article at Energy Policy

Abstract
An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.
Highlights
► Development of oil scenarios using computational experiments. ► Support of energy policy using agent-based modelling and simulation. ► Demonstration of the agent-based computational economics of the global energy system (ACEGES) policy-support tool. ► Energy policy by means of evidence-based forward-looking probabilistic forecasts.
Keywords: Oil depletion; Oil scenario generation; ACEGES

For more information, see http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867

ACEGES: New article at Energy Policy

Abstract
An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.
Highlights
► Development of oil scenarios using computational experiments. ► Support of energy policy using agent-based modelling and simulation. ► Demonstration of the agent-based computational economics of the global energy system (ACEGES) policy-support tool. ► Energy policy by means of evidence-based forward-looking probabilistic forecasts.
Keywords: Oil depletion; Oil scenario generation; ACEGES

For more information, see http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867