tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-359834472024-03-25T06:09:12.016+00:00The Object-Field ModelThe main aim of the object-field blog is to encourage and promote discussions of innovative ways of representation and modelling of fuzzy phenomena and reasoning about them.
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Thus this blog promotes discussions about Agent-Based Computational Economics, Geospatial Modelling, Applied Statistics and Mathematics.Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.comBlogger72125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-66699629597606247882011-06-17T09:40:00.002+01:002011-06-17T09:45:56.430+01:00Call for Contributors: Global Energy Policy and SecurityProf. Walter Leal Filho (Head of Research and Transfer Centre, Applications of Life Science Hamburg University of Applied Sciences,<br />Germany) and Dr. Vlasios Voudouris (Deputy Director Centre for International Business and Sustainability London Metropolitan Business School) are editing a new book with the title: "Global Energy Policy and Security." The book aims to represent a multidisciplinary perspective. Therefore, contributions from energy economics and agent-based computational economists working in the field of energy markets are particularly welcome. For example, a book chapter will be based on the Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System (ACEGES -http://www.aceges.org) project as a way of demonstrating the use of the agent-based computational economics (ACE) for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled experiments.<br /><br />For details, please see <a href="http://www.haw-hamburg.de/call_for_papers_en.html">http://www.haw-hamburg.de/call_for_papers_en.html</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-62437623374253826782011-06-10T20:12:00.001+01:002011-06-10T20:13:37.702+01:00ACEGES: New article at Energy PolicyAbstract<br />An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.<br />Highlights<br />► Development of oil scenarios using computational experiments. ► Support of energy policy using agent-based modelling and simulation. ► Demonstration of the agent-based computational economics of the global energy system (ACEGES) policy-support tool. ► Energy policy by means of evidence-based forward-looking probabilistic forecasts.<br />Keywords: Oil depletion; Oil scenario generation; ACEGES<br /><br />For more information, see <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-8110088498017197112011-06-10T20:12:00.000+01:002011-06-10T20:13:37.491+01:00ACEGES: New article at Energy PolicyAbstract<br />An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.<br />Highlights<br />► Development of oil scenarios using computational experiments. ► Support of energy policy using agent-based modelling and simulation. ► Demonstration of the agent-based computational economics of the global energy system (ACEGES) policy-support tool. ► Energy policy by means of evidence-based forward-looking probabilistic forecasts.<br />Keywords: Oil depletion; Oil scenario generation; ACEGES<br /><br />For more information, see <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003867</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-29701825678266497262011-04-14T18:07:00.001+01:002011-04-14T18:07:38.788+01:00UK Energy Day: Video<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/SQXGvTSO0r0?hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/SQXGvTSO0r0?hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-13478562362291678232011-03-29T15:24:00.008+01:002011-03-31T09:09:53.683+01:00MSc in Sustainable Business, Energy and Finance<div><object style="width:400px;height:315px" ><param name="movie" value="http://static.issuu.com/webembed/viewers/style1/v1/IssuuViewer.swf?mode=embed&layout=http%3A%2F%2Fskin.issuu.com%2Fv%2Fcolor%2Flayout.xml&backgroundColor=000000&showFlipBtn=true&documentId=110330202440-32c070e9bf4b4e88954c2b9decfb7747&docName=mscsbefbrochure&username=lmbsCIBS&loadingInfoText=MSc%20in%20Sustainable%20Business%2C%20Energy%20and%20Finance&et=1301518932297&er=51" /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/><param name="menu" value="false"/><embed src="http://static.issuu.com/webembed/viewers/style1/v1/IssuuViewer.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" menu="false" style="width:600px;height:425px" flashvars="mode=embed&layout=http%3A%2F%2Fskin.issuu.com%2Fv%2Fcolor%2Flayout.xml&backgroundColor=000000&showFlipBtn=true&documentId=110330202440-32c070e9bf4b4e88954c2b9decfb7747&docName=mscsbefbrochure&username=lmbsCIBS&loadingInfoText=MSc%20in%20Sustainable%20Business%2C%20Energy%20and%20Finance&et=1301518932297&er=51" /></object><div style="width:600px;text-align:left;"><a href="http://issuu.com/lmbsCIBS/docs/mscsbefbrochure?mode=embed&layout=http%3A%2F%2Fskin.issuu.com%2Fv%2Fcolor%2Flayout.xml&backgroundColor=000000&showFlipBtn=true" target="_blank">Open publication</a> - Free <a href="http://issuu.com" target="_blank">publishing</a> - <a href="http://issuu.com/search?q=lmbs cibs" target="_blank">More CIBS</a></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-45438846279915824952011-03-07T19:06:00.001+00:002011-03-07T19:08:30.266+00:00aceges.orgThe results of the ACEGES project, including updates of the ACEGES software, will be hosted at<a href="http://www.aceges.org"> www.aceges.org</a> from March, 2011 onwards.<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-56961121119881550062011-03-01T15:17:00.000+00:002011-03-01T15:18:07.467+00:00ACEGES Presentation at UCL Energy Istitute<iframe src="https://docs.google.com/present/embed?id=dccbnxjn_60f75tx4cn" frameborder="0" width="410" height="342"></iframe><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-5874684995846586562011-02-07T14:44:00.004+00:002011-02-07T14:47:12.022+00:00UK Energy Day 2011<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6EKihLmyoLljXl-AbtreAGnzMYGdNxCC4JrfEZP0VGifTeYV8PdqujRaVN_87ObI2M7hMIBm0Tv3lZhwXV7dNRsJTcssXncf8vOGrW3UDG0LLVOWMY-gTDiSYrqnhKL2WjfNF/s1600/pic.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 102px; height: 138px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6EKihLmyoLljXl-AbtreAGnzMYGdNxCC4JrfEZP0VGifTeYV8PdqujRaVN_87ObI2M7hMIBm0Tv3lZhwXV7dNRsJTcssXncf8vOGrW3UDG0LLVOWMY-gTDiSYrqnhKL2WjfNF/s400/pic.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5570958699013230930" /></a><br />The Centre for International Business and Sustainability at LondonMet Business School is organising the UK Energy Day: Sustainably Supply. The UK Energy Day 2011 is part of an European network of events led by the Intelligent Energy Agency of the European Commis- sion. The event will promote the awareness of the significance of sustainable energy supply, particularly the need to balance home-grown energy and energy imports. During the day, talks and demonstrations will take place to increase awareness of sustain- able methods of energy production at the global, regional, local and industrial levels.<br /><br />The brochure and registration form of the event is available here: <a href="http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/lmbs/research/cibs/energyday.cfm">http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/lmbs/research/cibs/energyday.cfm</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-60617575279235114882011-01-18T16:27:00.010+00:002011-01-19T08:54:09.062+00:00ACEGES: Launching the ACEGES demo<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://learning.londonmet.ac.uk/LMBS/aceges/ACEGESApplet/ACEGESApplet.html"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 101px; height: 129px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOu_Rw5cBemLYCgAOzhbVFuFdxnXRKdoZCyOIywaiw8wJkpyuYlRI8dLEb61osDh_L4rBvjzdbMR71vSvKPSnoTuZr7V32FnkNQaCT6IQ7Tl03Vd4x-4V2ffeXOEgBUseS9z21/s320/ACEGES.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5563645521060389522" /></a><br />We released the ACEGES demo as a Java applet. The most reliable web browser for the ACEGES demo seems to be <a href="http://www.google.com/chrome/intl/en-GB/landing_tv.html">Google Chrome</a> (both for Mac and Windows). Please let me know if something is in need of revision or what kind of functionality you would like to see by emailing me at v.voudouris@londonmet.ac.uk<br /><br />To access the ACEGES demo, select the "<span style="font-weight:bold;">ACEGES Applet</span>" tab from here: <a href="http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/lmbs/research/cibs/aceges">http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/lmbs/research/cibs/aceges</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-68948972523922509012011-01-11T20:27:00.002+00:002011-01-11T20:30:26.986+00:00The ACEGES laboratory for energy policy: Exploring the production of conventional oil<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQnFIp4iUrOZ0Ae-ekKyHUWFdcntaJ3vi5H5gzJj8MfQ3NON_W0Y-yYUd6rLDnu77i8HN3aH0w9neAj3oqHyYMuXgnKB3nWoW8B_oXw3hQSI2guObVkmNmXVMkwNWYGJ__WJA/s1600/welcome.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 318px; height: 30px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQnFIp4iUrOZ0Ae-ekKyHUWFdcntaJ3vi5H5gzJj8MfQ3NON_W0Y-yYUd6rLDnu77i8HN3aH0w9neAj3oqHyYMuXgnKB3nWoW8B_oXw3hQSI2guObVkmNmXVMkwNWYGJ__WJA/s320/welcome.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5561028390895808898" /></a><br />I am giving a talk at the UCL Energy Institute on January 25th. In case, you are interested to attend. <br /><br />Abstract:<br />For exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments, I propose an agent-based computational laboratory, termed the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System). In particular, I show how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. This approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of 'the invisible hand' but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. The simulated scenarios, paints of plausible futures satisfying the generative explanation, show that the peak of world oil production is likely to happen in the region of 2020 and 2040 with a global minimum of remaining reserve/production ratio between 20 and 40. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, I also observe a global minimum of market diversity in the broad vicinity of the peak year.<br /><br />For details, please see <a href="http://www.eventbrite.com/event/1182949233">http://www.eventbrite.com/event/1182949233</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-81591179121350438042011-01-08T11:17:00.001+00:002011-01-08T11:19:02.344+00:00Conrad Wolfram: Math with ComputersThis is really just want we need. Worth looking at it. <br /><br /><object width="446" height="326"><param name="movie" value="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"/><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><param name="bgColor" value="#ffffff"></param> <param name="flashvars" value="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/dynamic/ConradWolfram_2010G-medium.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/ConradWolfram-2010G.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=1007&introDuration=15330&adDuration=4000&postAdDuration=830&adKeys=talk=conrad_wolfram_teaching_kids_real_math_with_computers;year=2010;theme=design_like_you_give_a_damn;theme=unconventional_explanations;theme=what_s_next_in_tech;theme=how_we_learn;event=TEDGlobal+2010;&preAdTag=tconf.ted/embed;tile=1;sz=512x288;" /><embed src="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf" pluginspace="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" bgColor="#ffffff" width="446" height="326" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" flashvars="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/dynamic/ConradWolfram_2010G-medium.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/ConradWolfram-2010G.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=1007&introDuration=15330&adDuration=4000&postAdDuration=830&adKeys=talk=conrad_wolfram_teaching_kids_real_math_with_computers;year=2010;theme=design_like_you_give_a_damn;theme=unconventional_explanations;theme=what_s_next_in_tech;theme=how_we_learn;event=TEDGlobal+2010;"></embed></object><br /><br />Thanks Carlo for bring this to my attention.<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-81201859162429136272010-12-07T16:02:00.002+00:002010-12-07T16:04:10.272+00:00The Joy of Stats: Hans Roslingthis is certainly something worth watching. <br /><br /><object width="512" height="400"><param name="movie" value="http://www.bbc.co.uk/emp/external/player.swf"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><param name="FlashVars" value="config_settings_showUpdatedInFooter=true&config_settings_bitrateFloor=400&config_settings_showPopoutCta=false&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&config_plugin_autoResumePlugin_recentlyPlayed=false&config_settings_suppressRelatedLinks=true&config_settings_skin=silver&config=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Femp%2Fiplayer%2Fconfig%2Exml&playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Fiplayer%2Fplaylist%2Fp00cgk8p&config_settings_showFooter=true&"></param><embed src="http://www.bbc.co.uk/emp/external/player.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="512" height="400" FlashVars="config_settings_showUpdatedInFooter=true&config_settings_bitrateFloor=400&config_settings_showPopoutCta=false&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&config_plugin_autoResumePlugin_recentlyPlayed=false&config_settings_suppressRelatedLinks=true&config_settings_skin=silver&config=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Femp%2Fiplayer%2Fconfig%2Exml&playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Fiplayer%2Fplaylist%2Fp00cgk8p&config_settings_showFooter=true&"></embed></object><br /><br />and this is a sample of what will be presented today at 21:00 at BBC Four<br /><br /><object width="512" height="400"><param name="movie" value="http://www.bbc.co.uk/emp/external/player.swf"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><param name="FlashVars" value="config_settings_showUpdatedInFooter=true&config_settings_bitrateFloor=400&config_settings_showPopoutCta=false&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&config_plugin_autoResumePlugin_recentlyPlayed=false&config_settings_suppressRelatedLinks=true&config_settings_skin=silver&config=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Femp%2Fiplayer%2Fconfig%2Exml&playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Fiplayer%2Fplaylist%2Fp00cgkfk&config_settings_showFooter=true&"></param><embed src="http://www.bbc.co.uk/emp/external/player.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="512" height="400" FlashVars="config_settings_showUpdatedInFooter=true&config_settings_bitrateFloor=400&config_settings_showPopoutCta=false&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&config_plugin_autoResumePlugin_recentlyPlayed=false&config_settings_suppressRelatedLinks=true&config_settings_skin=silver&config=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Femp%2Fiplayer%2Fconfig%2Exml&playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ebbc%2Eco%2Euk%2Fiplayer%2Fplaylist%2Fp00cgkfk&config_settings_showFooter=true&"></embed></object><br /><br />Vlasios<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-69534310358665721702010-11-26T21:15:00.007+00:002010-12-01T13:22:41.322+00:00New Article: Towards a unifying formalisation of geographic representation: the object-field model with uncertainty and semantics<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiflyYuw-F_BHX-Ew8ZB8E8wOEpF_74TSyTQFRFbVFKKaZIImLEKQghngMV9OeJmpd-FrR02XN1oBCawnocNBRW501qipppSD3kp8lU6HQV90i2tNQeNAx-aPdjztbn4U5YQ1U2/s1600/cover.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 141px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiflyYuw-F_BHX-Ew8ZB8E8wOEpF_74TSyTQFRFbVFKKaZIImLEKQghngMV9OeJmpd-FrR02XN1oBCawnocNBRW501qipppSD3kp8lU6HQV90i2tNQeNAx-aPdjztbn4U5YQ1U2/s200/cover.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5545703555281219122" /></a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Abstract:</span> The need for a conceptually unifying data model for the representation of geographic phenomena is widely understood. Although some successes have been reported, progress has been slow, especially at the conceptual and logical levels of abstraction. Drawing on and combining existing successes, this article suggests the object-field model with uncertainty and semantics at the conceptual and logical levels of abstraction. The logical level has been formalised in the Unified Modelling Language (UML) class diagram. It is shown that the concepts required to better represent geographic phenomena can be derived from a single foundation that is termed the Elementary_geoParticle with associated uncertainty and semantics by means of aggregation. The town centre phenomenon is used as an application of the conceptual framework being proposed.<br /><br />To download the paper:<a href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a930247080~tab=content"> http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a930247080~tab=content</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-84182062132721202052010-11-23T01:15:00.006+00:002010-11-23T01:43:41.329+00:00Video of oil production<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href=" http://screencast.com/t/wkZLHveRlp1 "><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 298px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTsbWnS2UcvL1xoPe6VoiCTceC3jtQIGFmkWTb1o8dVZiXA1J6l9IS-L2stdzWzVW_l5zxWvEBtQBPVzMKHeYA8secBAfN7Vl1cHNoSetNwIouKW65LwjvEqxu2E_0IlV-0fxG/s400/animation.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5542548884656975410" /></a><br /><br />The data has been generated in ACEGES and animated in R.<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-20691576880012178952010-10-27T16:59:00.006+01:002010-11-23T12:40:27.859+00:00ACEGES Software: The InterafaceBelow is the latest interface of the ACEGES 1.1 software, with the emphasis on the development of exploratory scenarios for oil and gas production.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Screen 1</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxXvXQvFDtE-jW0EVa0qdb-qOweGp9bgwlns6xfDhjiC9fKYqOyUzmc7nHYGfzQb3ry1yhMO11KsqwwjG6S_vJIwHdGwY7LXrf664bQc7zpAGObQz_hogaHgtC8ufSihIVXBpA/s1600/AcegesInterface.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 231px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxXvXQvFDtE-jW0EVa0qdb-qOweGp9bgwlns6xfDhjiC9fKYqOyUzmc7nHYGfzQb3ry1yhMO11KsqwwjG6S_vJIwHdGwY7LXrf664bQc7zpAGObQz_hogaHgtC8ufSihIVXBpA/s400/AcegesInterface.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5532824248266201890" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Screen 2</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbZNLuLfpnsE-_lO-nmmG-DGOO4l4lNsOtpjGIO_74rGUFNrHk1PQDXoipfrIGTh9R7KYH97sME3AVmO6s_iZTKXHW9shUQvU8Fe2TlpyMw9t8mZpaqPKCqe_B5p7tPO6ZdPNw/s1600/GUIInter.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 238px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbZNLuLfpnsE-_lO-nmmG-DGOO4l4lNsOtpjGIO_74rGUFNrHk1PQDXoipfrIGTh9R7KYH97sME3AVmO6s_iZTKXHW9shUQvU8Fe2TlpyMw9t8mZpaqPKCqe_B5p7tPO6ZdPNw/s400/GUIInter.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5542723743493400370" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-78085679005084567852010-10-19T11:03:00.004+01:002010-10-20T14:05:33.161+01:00Benoit Mandelbrot 1924-2010<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB05YrVyeLrDQF9dva-saHvlhnXCgmgmow9kiIbkprwShJyvjqYn1goJS6cOvqdPembVv3_fmgoEIm-66tMThhHnOTVVEJmdJJgARVUpI4dEKaTQPfYHQzfGtQTaVB5HcYjyZ6/s1600/101018_bm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 150px; height: 150px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB05YrVyeLrDQF9dva-saHvlhnXCgmgmow9kiIbkprwShJyvjqYn1goJS6cOvqdPembVv3_fmgoEIm-66tMThhHnOTVVEJmdJJgARVUpI4dEKaTQPfYHQzfGtQTaVB5HcYjyZ6/s320/101018_bm.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5529696319848389058" /></a><br />Benoit Mandelbrot, the mathematician, the father of fractal mathematics, and advocate of more sophisticated modelling in quantitative economics and finance, died on 14th October 2010 aged 85.<br /><br /><object width="595" height="471" data="http://www.youtube.com/v/vxbxXBrOPS8?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"><param name="data" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vxbxXBrOPS8?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vxbxXBrOPS8?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0" /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /></object><br /><br />For a compilation of videos see: <a href="http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/blog/JacobBettany/read/5347000/benoit-mandelbrot-in-videos?goback=.gde_90415_member_32545623">Benoit Mandelbrot</a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-52904683760895093122010-10-13T22:17:00.002+01:002010-10-13T22:20:11.816+01:00Sustainability and BusinessAlthough the video is not directly related with the aims of the blog, I really like it. That is why it is here. <br /><br /><object style="background-image:url(http://i4.ytimg.com/vi/gP8Frk2VidQ/hqdefault.jpg)" width="480" height="295"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/gP8Frk2VidQ?fs=1&hl=en_US"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gP8Frk2VidQ?fs=1&hl=en_US" width="480" height="295" allowScriptAccess="never" allowFullScreen="true" wmode="transparent" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object><br /><br /><br />Maybe, novel modelling tools can help us see things differently.<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-25966963897122773542010-09-20T09:07:00.005+01:002010-09-20T09:14:45.325+01:00PhD Opportunities at LondonMet<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2RF_ltGBowbJEbRidDFtp5Hi2SREO5WRAoxlVj0-f0UVIZS62nA6lxK1PxDdAE-LeAK1JzszIdWj4Oaz37CGR8B0mkK2naziwotFkD0QMBS9MxOseVtgM0uWyTckP1irRwj4a/s1600/montageMain.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 51px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2RF_ltGBowbJEbRidDFtp5Hi2SREO5WRAoxlVj0-f0UVIZS62nA6lxK1PxDdAE-LeAK1JzszIdWj4Oaz37CGR8B0mkK2naziwotFkD0QMBS9MxOseVtgM0uWyTckP1irRwj4a/s400/montageMain.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5518905871838488354" /></a><br /><br />There are a number of PhD opportunities at LondonMet. Please see here: <a href="http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/londonmet/research/the-graduate-school/vice-chancellors-phd-scholarships.cfm">http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/londonmet/research/the-graduate-school/vice-chancellors-phd-scholarships.cfm</a><br /><br />In particular, see the following proposals (<a href="http://www.gamlss.com/papers/PHDoportunities.pdf"> http://www.gamlss.com/papers/PHDoportunities.pdf</a>) :<br /><br />i) Data Mining Models for the Flexible Modelling of the Location, Scale and Shape Parameters of a Response Distribution<br />ii) Comparison, Evaluation and Development of Stochastic Volatility Models<br />iii) Energy-Economy-Investment Modelling<br />iv) Individual decision-making and social interaction at the movies: The Philadelphia Story<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-71376334543257413372010-08-24T21:13:00.007+01:002010-08-24T21:45:40.455+01:00Fusing the agent-based and Object – Field models<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2_2UI3gmgIpeF2BJG01ChPQ8T3okFwQM1rURIKoPEJLWz7L4ztg9mW0zrdeDu3XEDHcWBV_cJOZDVg2-qWeN5X7xD_87aerdPYNAgKFeIsg9GWbeNwFKry7g9vO4M5U86krVI/s1600/epb.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 141px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2_2UI3gmgIpeF2BJG01ChPQ8T3okFwQM1rURIKoPEJLWz7L4ztg9mW0zrdeDu3XEDHcWBV_cJOZDVg2-qWeN5X7xD_87aerdPYNAgKFeIsg9GWbeNwFKry7g9vO4M5U86krVI/s200/epb.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5509073867722894994" /></a><br /><br />One of my recent works appeared as an advance online publication at the Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design. The url of the paper is: <a href="http://www.envplan.com/abstract.cgi?id=b36001">http://www.envplan.com/abstract.cgi?id=b36001</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Abstract</span>. The fusion of agent-based and geospatial models represents an exciting new synthesis for social science and economics. It has the potential to improve the theory and the practice of modelling complex real-world phenomena. Yet, to date, there has been little systematic analysis at the conceptual and logical levels of how to fuse agent-based and geospatial models for the representation and reasoning of socioeconomic phenomena. Here both sets of issues are explored. In particular, it will be argued that the development of synthetic models requires autonomous agents and flexible organisational structures that can complete their objectives while situated in a dynamic and uncertain geoenvironment represented by the concept of Elementary_geoParticle. As an example of the concept, I present a preliminary conceptual model of global energy to demonstrate the validity and possible uses of the proposed technique.<br /><br />The modelling framework discussed above has been used in the ACEGES project discussed here: <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1652361">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1652361</a>. A new paper is currently under review in an energy journal (i will not name the specific journal until the review process completes).<br /><br />If you are interested in the topic of agent-based and geospatial models, see the gisagents blog ( <a href="http://gisagents.blogspot.com/">http://gisagents.blogspot.com/</a> ) by Dr Andrew Crooks.<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-75085179757994002682010-08-24T09:29:00.007+01:002010-08-24T09:37:34.588+01:00Simulated Scenarios of Convetional Oil Production<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGOJjrHZCTh2YY0rDjQNgt-31f7GVFh1-1QGt-LziIdvFfcBSmVkJyUA79UEgDGvP247MMNGbVTV_jlfkr3jxY9pQSbbUefhYTCc3oGQ7BGu6z5gr0zneTjKVz1JxOzF8EO9H_/s1600/csda.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 122px; height: 166px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGOJjrHZCTh2YY0rDjQNgt-31f7GVFh1-1QGt-LziIdvFfcBSmVkJyUA79UEgDGvP247MMNGbVTV_jlfkr3jxY9pQSbbUefhYTCc3oGQ7BGu6z5gr0zneTjKVz1JxOzF8EO9H_/s320/csda.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5508892179648786450" /></a><br />I will present a paper at the 4th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics hosted by University of London & London School of Economics. See here for details: <a href="http://www.cfe-csda.org/cfe10/">http://www.cfe-csda.org/cfe10/</a> The paper may also appear at the Computational Statistics & Data Analysis journal.<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Abstract</span>: <br />The ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System) model is an agent-based model of conventional oil production. The model accounts for four key uncertainties, namely Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), estimated growth in oil demand, estimated growth in oil production and assumed peak/decline point. This work provides an overview of the ACEGES model capabilities and an example of how it can be used for long-term scenarios of conventional oil production. Because the ACEGES model has been developed using the Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) modelling paradigm, the macro-phenomenon of interest (world oil production) grows from sets of micro-foundations (country-specific decision of oil production). The simulated data is analyzed in GAMLSS (Generalised Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape). GAMLSS is a general framework of modelling where the response variable (oil production) can have a very general (up to four parameters) distribution and all of the parameters of the distributions are modelled as linear or smooth function of the explanatory variable (e.g., time). From a methodological perspective, ACEGES and GAMLSS are applied to help leaders in government, business and civil society better understand the challenging outlook for energy through controlled computational experiments.<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-30295275792884847422010-08-13T15:13:00.004+01:002010-08-13T20:07:50.659+01:00Probabilistic forecasts of oil productionFollowing from my last posting, see the two "improved" figures (analysis conducted with Mikis Stasinopoulos and Bob Rigby). <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The H-H scenario:</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGZtvAVP7zWph7bG-A911U-TWpiuFj2hMNAVl9YMe0953Td0iI3UcixbMu128PqorWkqyXNtyTv_1QUP1YKVVWPHSP0m4nJHPY-rK91fxLU27g5N-EW8rxlECEuBnaveTfiI9A/s1600/RplotHH.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 268px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGZtvAVP7zWph7bG-A911U-TWpiuFj2hMNAVl9YMe0953Td0iI3UcixbMu128PqorWkqyXNtyTv_1QUP1YKVVWPHSP0m4nJHPY-rK91fxLU27g5N-EW8rxlECEuBnaveTfiI9A/s400/RplotHH.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5504897745715490738" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The L-M scenario:</span><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3CVqjw-jRShtKG4KapAeuT1RZyRb106mGcopjcNjyhtAKSrCw0Mqatn2wnz3bc5upSQatPVZ4kOLA5upS7pI9uRo7DNqcj1TEiIcx92NYSkcURVSWMGZ349QQyUYOV9ED2xLS/s1600/RplotLM.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 268px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3CVqjw-jRShtKG4KapAeuT1RZyRb106mGcopjcNjyhtAKSrCw0Mqatn2wnz3bc5upSQatPVZ4kOLA5upS7pI9uRo7DNqcj1TEiIcx92NYSkcURVSWMGZ349QQyUYOV9ED2xLS/s400/RplotLM.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5504897910246020610" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-36727124063375120552010-08-12T12:25:00.008+01:002010-08-12T12:35:37.786+01:00L-M and H-H Scenarios of oil forecastingI have created two scenarios of conventional oil production and below you can see the simulated results and the the historical production from 2000 to 2009 (<span style="font-weight:bold;">black</span> dots). Given the four key uncertainties (demand growth, production growth, EUR and peak/decline point):<br /><br />1)The L-M case uses estimates from the demand growth, production growth, EUR and the Monte Carlo process for the peak/decline point (this is the low-medium heterogeneity)<br /><br />2) All key uncertainties are drawn from the Monte Carlo process (this is the high heterogeneity case)<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAeTYBt5iezbCqThA5mrVXGnZhwwSHvDM1FqHRhRXciV9dsuGbfh4nBWh01d_fa5LjL95YkagH22sFxskUE4492vVelBmkQoEDdP29wcYZ7hcPpkEH5acgou_4VMtk6hHLyGdJ/s1600/LMHHCases.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 237px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAeTYBt5iezbCqThA5mrVXGnZhwwSHvDM1FqHRhRXciV9dsuGbfh4nBWh01d_fa5LjL95YkagH22sFxskUE4492vVelBmkQoEDdP29wcYZ7hcPpkEH5acgou_4VMtk6hHLyGdJ/s400/LMHHCases.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5504483740462896162" /></a><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Note: the simulation is initialized with the 2001 data. Thus, the first simulated year is 2002. </span><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-61818990732716133812010-08-12T10:53:00.000+01:002010-08-12T10:54:15.801+01:00Benoit Mandelbrot: Fractals and the art of roughnessI hope you will enjoy the video as I did:<br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ay8OMOsf6AQ?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ay8OMOsf6AQ?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-22522540653179791462010-08-06T13:16:00.003+01:002010-08-06T13:18:01.330+01:00Presentation of ACEGES at the CEF 2010This is the presentation that I have at the Society for Computational Economics, <span style="font-style:italic;">16th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance</span>, London, UK. <br /><br /><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/present/embed?id=dccbnxjn_30c3tthn9t" frameborder="0" width="410" height="342"></iframe><div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35983447.post-11807165598490186022010-08-02T22:19:00.005+01:002010-08-02T22:24:58.217+01:00The ACEGES 1.0 Documentation<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje81EoawzTpbc2-NSz5pg9pOfPuCx0w-6oDiQ2zHIzFVzkH57Z26mbjk9slZFt_ell4O-e417YFgSi8qvWPXckOoAe-nAfI_IGlyHfjm9mxA_ENYIn7Fo2NX0cgpqC0n2nemBk/s1600/cibs.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 101px; height: 138px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje81EoawzTpbc2-NSz5pg9pOfPuCx0w-6oDiQ2zHIzFVzkH57Z26mbjk9slZFt_ell4O-e417YFgSi8qvWPXckOoAe-nAfI_IGlyHfjm9mxA_ENYIn7Fo2NX0cgpqC0n2nemBk/s400/cibs.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5500926229569160050" /></a><br />We have recently completed the first draft of <span style="font-style:italic;">The ACEGES 1.0 Documentation: Simulated Scenarios of Conventional Oil Production.</span><br /><br />Abstract: The ACEGES model is an agent-based model of conventional oil production for 93 countries. The model accounts for four key uncertainties, namely Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), estimated growth in oil demand, estimated growth in oil production and assumed peak/decline point. This documentation provides an overview of the ACEGES model capabilities and an example of how it can be used for long-term (discrete and continuous) scenarios of conventional oil production.<br /><br />The documentation can be accessed from: <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1652361">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1652361</a><br /><br />Citation: <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Voudouris, V. and Di Maio, C.</span> (2010), The ACEGES 1.0 Documentation: Simulated Scenarios of Conventional Oil Production, Centre for International Business and Sustainability (London Metropolitan Business School): Working Paper 12, London, UK.<div class="blogger-post-footer">The Object-Field Blog
by Vlasios Voudouris</div>Vlasioshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00698708608338670047noreply@blogger.com0