Probabilistic forecasts of oil production

Following from my last posting, see the two "improved" figures (analysis conducted with Mikis Stasinopoulos and Bob Rigby).

The H-H scenario:


The L-M scenario:

L-M and H-H Scenarios of oil forecasting

I have created two scenarios of conventional oil production and below you can see the simulated results and the the historical production from 2000 to 2009 (black dots). Given the four key uncertainties (demand growth, production growth, EUR and peak/decline point):

1)The L-M case uses estimates from the demand growth, production growth, EUR and the Monte Carlo process for the peak/decline point (this is the low-medium heterogeneity)

2) All key uncertainties are drawn from the Monte Carlo process (this is the high heterogeneity case)


Note: the simulation is initialized with the 2001 data. Thus, the first simulated year is 2002.

Benoit Mandelbrot: Fractals and the art of roughness

I hope you will enjoy the video as I did: