Due to the uncertainties with the EUR data and the oil demand, I implemented a Monte Carlo simulation that uses distributional assumptions of EUR data and oil demand based upon the data released from the Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency, CIA and the US Geological Survey.
Next month, I will finish the User Guide and I will post the software on the CIBS website: http://www.londonmet.ac.uk/lmbs/research/cibs/cibs-scenario-planning/cibs-scenario-planning_home.cfm . If you want to access it earlier, please email me at v.voudouris@lodonmet.ac.uk
THe figure below sow the results from the US & Kuwait . RED line is the actual production while the black dots are the simulated data (77 simulation runs of 99 steps).
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