The ACEGES laboratory for energy policy: Exploring the production of conventional oil

I am giving a talk at the UCL Energy Institute on January 25th. In case, you are interested to attend.

Abstract:
For exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments, I propose an agent-based computational laboratory, termed the ACEGES (Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System). In particular, I show how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. This approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of 'the invisible hand' but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. The simulated scenarios, paints of plausible futures satisfying the generative explanation, show that the peak of world oil production is likely to happen in the region of 2020 and 2040 with a global minimum of remaining reserve/production ratio between 20 and 40. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, I also observe a global minimum of market diversity in the broad vicinity of the peak year.

For details, please see http://www.eventbrite.com/event/1182949233