ACEGES Software: Probabilistic Forecasts of World Oil Production to 2100

I have been asked by a few people to show a graphic of World Oil Production. This is given in the figures below. I have superimposed the 'peak year' based upon the simulation (Monte Carlo simulations based upon distributional assumptions of OIL EUR, Peak Point, Oil Demand).

Although the peak year and peak production contradict much of the existing views, a full explanation of the assumptions of the ACEGES program and the data used to initialize the simulations will be provided in the ACEGES 1.0 manual - expected by the end of July. The figures are based on only 134 simulations.



The blue dots is a random sample from the simulated data and the black lines (in the figure below) are estimated centiles using the Generalized Beta type 2 distribution. All the four parameters of the distribution were modelled using cubic smoothing splines. The actual production, red line, seems to follow the 2% centile value.

ACEGES Software: Smooth Centile Curves for United States

Below is the centile curves of the simulated oil production data for the United States. The distribution used for the centile curves is the Box-Cox t where all the four parameters (mu-location, sigma-scale, nu-skewness, tau-kurtosis) of the distribution were modelled (in GAMLSS) using a non-parametric Penalised Beta Spline.


Currently, we are fitting additional distributions to see if we can capture better the skewness and kurtosis of the simulated data as the above centiles are wobbly.

ACEGES Software: World Oil Production

The figures below show the simulated world oil production where simulation step 0 means year 2002. Note that the world oil production has not been modelled explicitly. The world oil production is the emergent pattern of the production behavior of the individual countries (agents). Even though these figures shows a few simulations (each line represents a single simulation), there is an interesting clustering of peak year and peak oil production.

ACEGES Software: Results for IRAN

Below are 4 figures of simulated data for Iran (black line is the actual production). The first (log representation) and third figures are based on Monte Carlo simulations of EUR, Peak Point and Demand while the second (log representation) and fourth figures are based on Monte Carlo simulations of EUR and Demand.

NOTE: These results are based on less than 100 simulations. Therefore, at this stage these figures should be treated as cartoons!